What if Indonesia went to war with the United States?

By: WPS

What If Indonesia Went to War with the United States?
An Analysis of a Hypothetical Conflict

War is a destructive force that leaves no winners—only survivors. The idea of Indonesia, a Southeast Asian archipelagic nation, going to war with the United States, the world’s most powerful military superpower, is deeply alarming. Although such a scenario is highly improbable and undesirable, exploring it as a hypothetical situation can help us better understand the geopolitical dynamics, military capabilities, and global consequences of such a conflict.

1. Military Comparison

At the outset, there is a vast asymmetry in military capabilities between Indonesia and the United States. The U.S. possesses the most advanced and well-funded military in the world, with a defense budget of over $800 billion, compared to Indonesia’s relatively modest budget of around $10 billion. The U.S. has hundreds of military bases worldwide, a nuclear arsenal, the most powerful navy (including 11 nuclear-powered aircraft carriers), advanced air force capabilities, cyberwarfare units, and space-based surveillance systems.

Indonesia, on the other hand, has a respectable regional military force, but it is largely focused on internal security, territorial defense, and peacekeeping. Its armed forces (TNI) are skilled in guerrilla tactics, jungle warfare, and archipelagic defense, but lack long-range strike capabilities or global force projection. In a direct military confrontation, especially in open warfare, the disparity would be overwhelmingly in favor of the United States.

However, if the conflict were limited to Indonesian territory, the U.S. would face challenges such as difficult terrain, lack of local knowledge, and potential resistance from local populations. As history has shown in places like Vietnam and Afghanistan, even a superpower can face significant difficulties in occupying foreign land.

2. Possible Causes of Conflict

It is important to explore what could possibly lead to such a catastrophic scenario. Indonesia and the U.S. have historically maintained generally positive relations. They cooperate in trade, counterterrorism, military training, and education. However, conflicts could theoretically arise from several causes:

• Territorial Disputes: Unlikely, as the two countries are geographically distant.

• Economic Sanctions or Trade Wars: These could cause tensions, but not necessarily war.

• Political Ideology or Regime Change Efforts: If Indonesia drastically shifted towards a regime hostile to Western interests or aligned with an adversary like China or Russia, tensions could escalate.

• Regional Proxy War: A U.S.-China conflict in the Indo-Pacific could drag Indonesia in as a strategic player.

• Accidental Military Incident: Miscommunication in international waters or airspace could spark a conflict.

3. Economic Consequences

Both nations would suffer heavily from a war. For Indonesia, the impact would be catastrophic. The economy would likely collapse under sanctions, trade embargoes, and destruction of infrastructure. Major industries such as palm oil, tourism, coal mining, and manufacturing would be devastated. Foreign investors would flee, the rupiah would crash, and unemployment would skyrocket.

For the United States, the economic blow would be far smaller in direct terms, but not negligible. Indonesia is the fourth most populous country in the world and a member of the G20. Disruptions in trade routes, especially through the Strait of Malacca, one of the world’s busiest shipping lanes, would affect global supply chains. War would also increase U.S. military spending, deepen tensions with other regional powers, and destabilize Southeast Asia.

Moreover, both nations would face human costs—civilian deaths, displacement, and a humanitarian crisis. No economic or political gain could justify this loss.

4. Role of Alliances and International Community

A war between Indonesia and the U.S. would not happen in a vacuum. Indonesia is a founding member of ASEAN and maintains close ties with nations like China, India, Japan, and Australia. The United States is allied with several Indo-Pacific powers including Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, and Australia.

If war broke out, these alliances would be tested. China might support Indonesia, either directly or indirectly, to counterbalance U.S. influence. This could escalate the conflict into a broader regional or even global war. NATO allies may back the U.S., but many would likely call for de-escalation.

The United Nations would almost certainly intervene diplomatically. Sanctions, peace talks, and ceasefire negotiations would dominate international headlines. The global community, already fatigued from conflicts in the Middle East and Eastern Europe, would push for restraint and resolution.

5. Asymmetric Warfare and Resistance

Though Indonesia cannot match the U.S. in conventional warfare, it could engage in asymmetric strategies. These include:

• Cyber Attacks: Disrupting U.S. networks, communications, and financial systems.

• Guerilla Warfare: If U.S. troops attempted occupation, Indonesian fighters could use their home-ground advantage to resist.

• Naval Disruption: Using submarines and fast attack craft to disrupt U.S. naval supply lines in Southeast Asian waters.

• Information Warfare: Mobilizing domestic and international opinion against the U.S., portraying itself as the victim of foreign aggression.

However, such tactics would likely only prolong the inevitable and cause more suffering.

6. Impact on Indonesian Society

A war with the United States would be devastating for the Indonesian people. Major cities like Jakarta, Surabaya, and Medan could become targets of airstrikes or blockades. Civilian casualties, refugee crises, food shortages, and internal displacement would occur. Social cohesion could unravel, especially if ethnic or religious tensions were inflamed.

On the other hand, nationalism and anti-American sentiment would surge. The government would likely enforce martial law, tighten media control, and mobilize the population for defense. Indonesia has a history of resilience, as shown in its struggle for independence, but modern warfare would present new and greater challenges.

7. Post-War Consequences

If such a war were ever to end, the aftermath would depend on how the conflict concluded.

• If Indonesia lost decisively, it could face occupation, regime change, or economic dependency on foreign powers. National pride would be wounded, and reconstruction would take decades.

• If a peace treaty were signed early, both sides could avoid the worst outcomes, but trust would be hard to rebuild.

• If the war escalated, it could draw in China, Russia, and other nations—potentially triggering World War III.

Either way, the global order would be shaken, and Southeast Asia would face long-term instability.

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Conclusion

The idea of a war between Indonesia and the United States is a nightmare scenario—one that neither country, nor the world, can afford. While military comparisons show a clear U.S. advantage, the true costs of such a conflict go far beyond bombs and bullets. Economic collapse, regional instability, humanitarian disaster, and geopolitical chaos would ensue.

This hypothetical scenario reinforces the importance of diplomacy, peaceful coexistence, and multilateral cooperation. In a globalized world, war between nations—especially those as important as Indonesia and the U.S.—is not only destructive but deeply irrational.

Let this thought experiment serve as a reminder: peace, though imperfect, is always better than war.